Idenitfying Which Football Games to Trade in the Goals Markets

Morning All,

Just a quick post to show you a systematic way of identifying which games you can trade using one particular strategy. With so many 'in-play' games on at the weekend you can be selective in what games you trade. As I've mentioned before my 1st strategy on a game is to back under 2.5 goals with ok/good liquidity 20-30 mins before the game (or when the price starts to steam) and trade out from Kick-off up to HT depending on the teams playing and the pace of the match.

I only trade 'in-play' when I have done some research. There are hundreds of factors to consider and I'm going to highlight one of them I do use. You can even use this as a straight backing/laying system should you wish.

Rules

1) Game must be able to go 'In-play' on the Exchanges
2) Look for odds between 1.80 and 2.40 in under/over 2.5 goals market
3) Assess Home Team Form - Rules are:

a) Previous three home games must have ended under 2.5 goals in at least 2 of the 3.
b) One or more of the score lines must contain 0 goals for the home or away side. (In any of the 3 games).

4) Assess Away Team Form - Rules are:


a) Last three away games must be UNDER 2.5 goals in at least 2 or 3 of the 3.
b) The AWAY side must not have scored in at least 1 of the last 3 away games.

And that's it. It's pretty simple to implement with limited time.

There are numerous was to approach the game but hopefully you have done some research on what to expect in a game and highlights trading opportunities. If you have selected a few games but only want to the one, do so and if any early goals go in the other games you have more of a chance of dipping in and trading out (scalping) within a few minutes as the game settles again, knowing there will not be many goals.

www.tradingfootball.eu

Actually Guys, while i just submitted my previous post I received the following e-mail from the Nugget Crew (TradingFootball.eu)

DISCLAIMER - I am not affiliated with the site and it is free advertising for them but it is a service I currently use and would recommend anyone else to use if you want to become consistently profitable on trading football games.

E-mail below..................

Hi guys,



A quick update from the Nugget Crew. Many thanks for all the orders thus far for either the dvd/downloadable videos or the monthly service. We are keeping the offer open for the dvd's/downlaods for another couple of weeks before the price reverts to what it should be, £69.95. So if you've not ordered yet then you have another 2 weeks at the current price. The videos will comprise the following strategies:


* Scalping inplay and at half time. Watch what we look for and when we nip in and out of the markets.

* A typical Saturday afternoon of trading not 1 or 2 but 6 Premier games simultaneously.

* The Adster Speciality, based on stats/results from the Premiership thus far this season.

* Watch the importance of liquidity and why if it isn't sufficient it's not advisable to enter the markets.

* See how both professional traders use 1 right up to 6 scores from the start of the match and how they juggle them increasing liability, laying off liability to end with a green screen across the board.


* What if your prematch selections are wrong? How do you turn things round? Our beloved Bingo shows you with captions and audio. (All videos have captions and audio).


* The simplicity of the Xt Starter when and when there is not a goal scored.


* HT/FT markets.

And many many more. The video will be over 3 hours long and will be available by 1 November. Here is the link.

http://www.tradingfootball.eu/#/videos/4535688209


As for the service we will be going live from the weekend of 1 November. The chat room has been doing really well with majority making plenty of money from advices given out via the blog or in the room itself. Not got the link? Here it is, we will be in there tonight so come and join us.


http://www.tradingfootball.eu/#/chat-room/4535801732

 
 
Thanks for Reading
 
Rick

UEFA CL - Liverpool vs Lyon

Hi Folks,

There is plenty of footballing action tonight including Liverpool vs Lyon. When I saw Liverpool were 1.90 on Betfair early this morning I had to lump massive amounts of money with the view of trading out before kick-off. Why you may ask? Even though they have lost the last 3 games, Liverpool at home are stronger than any other team in European football despite recent league results. European Cup games are completely different and the tension/atmosphere will get all the players into gear. Had Sunderland not scored that freak goal, Liverpool would be trading around 1.60, even without Torres. Gerrard is fit and benitez/liverpool have a really good record against French sides. Lyon also lost at home 2-0 at the weekend against a lowly mid-table team so their league form is also questionable and will push the price of liverpool down when people have done their research.

I do not gamble on straight forward outcomes so I will be trading out before Kick-off at hopefully around the high 70's but I will be dipping in and out of the goals markets as I believe it will be tight at 1-0 or 2-0. I will probably back under 2.5 goals 25 minutes before kick-off to catch the steam that normally happens on midweek televised games and then lay half my stake at kick-off and stagger the remaining lay bets until decent green profit is made, hopefully within 5-6 minutes. I look for around 10-12% return on investment.

I would also like to point out I have been learning new football trading strategies at http://www.tradingfootball.eu/ where they currently have a free chat room. Around 30-50 football traders join the chat room daily and discuss their own strategies and the one of the full-time football traders (Bingo & Adster) is always present and I too should be present tonight as it's a lot more informative than the Betfair Forum.

I'm not entirely sure when but I think they are also offering a paid membership fee starting in November and selling DVD's of the trading techniques. You can find out everything on their site!

GL if you are trading tonight.

How to Reduce your Betfair Premium Charge

If you are lucky enough to be making decent profits from trading you will be faced with paying the Betfair Premium Charge.

The Premium Charge has been widely discussed all of the web and nearly everyone disagrees with it but I can safely say that this charge is here to stay or at least until the Government changes the gambling legislation. Betfair try and justify the charge by saying that the charge will only affect 0.5% of their customer base (which is roughly 12,500 customers) and it is these customers that cost them the most money, which I strongly disagree with! What about all the traders that are losing money that are doing exactly the same trades only reverse? Surely the real cost per transaction/settling markets, etc to Betfair is exactly the same or am I missing something? There are proably more losing traders learning to trade that end up gambling than profitable traders, otherwise more than 0.05% of customers will be paying the charge!

My view is that while gambling in the UK is tax-free, the goverment still gets revenue from the bookmakers including Betfair (a seperate tax in addition to corporate tax) and Betfair have basically decided to tax us profitable customers to cover their bill whilst improving cashflow to satisfy their shareholders.

Anyway enough of the rambling, what can we do about it?

Unfortunately there is no wonder loop hole (not that I am aware of anyway) so the only thing to do is quite simply lose as much money on Betfair as possible on a regualr basis. This means doing a daily or weekly routine to keep profits down.

Method 1

As some of you blog readers know I'm a member of BetSeventytwo.com which specialises in Risk-Free Betting and most of their members are arbitrage betters. In the Live Chat Room I was suprised to hear that their Betfair Accounts were constantly in negative figures. One said he on average loses about £20K a year on Betfair just from backing odds that are higher with bookmakers than betfair.

Did you also know if you consistently backed horses with the bookmakers at a higher price than the price on Betfair then you can make good profits as Betfair IS the true market before traders come into play 5-10 mins before the off! For more information on that visit Brian Coplin's blog http://betstobefair.co.uk/

Two months ago I started spending 10-20 mins a day finding arbitrage opportunities (by using an arbitrage tool and at odd.bestbetting.com) with the horses and I have noticed I'm making more money with the bookmakers than on Betfair so my Betfair profits are going down. I am also making extra money in the arb itself and with the additional free bet offers I constantly get. On the downside, you need to be consistent in following this method as there are swings but overall it works well. You also need to hope that the Bookmaker does not limit or even close your account. To date only Bet365 has limited my account!

Method 2

Simply find a profitable tipster who consistenly makes money in any sport over a period of time. There are plenty of them out there. Back them with a Bookmaker or with another Exchange such as Betdaq or WBX.com and lay them on Betfair. Yes you might lose a small percentage but if your savvy enought to get the right odds the loss is minimal and it is a damn sight better than paying 20% of your winnings.

Vice versa, follow a non profitable tipster by backing on betfair and laying on Betdaq.

I personally back my betting club lay tips on Betfair and lay on Betdaq plus extra winning stake as I know my system consistently makes money over time. This on average reduces my Betfair profits by £1500 a month on £100 stakes (15 points).

Method 3

Use your trading knowledge. You could, if your quick enough multiple trade between betdaq and betfair pre-race or in-play. For Trade on one side of the book and vice versa with the other.

Also a proven in-play football trading technique is to back on the goals markets when the odds are 1.03-1.04 with a goal or two cushion near the end of the game on top european league games with Betdaq. Do avoid all european and domestic cup games and if possible look for evenly balance teams and lay them on Betfair. You can also make money/cover the commission if you back at slightly higher odds before the lay on Betfair.

I have hopefully kick started the discussion of how to beat the Premium Charge. I will post more methods as and when I come across them. Betdaq liquidity is slowly improving and matching trades on top football games is not a problem. All the methods above do have some risk but the rewards are far greater.

If anyone else has a method or can think of one please post a comment.

Thanks for reading and I hope us traders can tackle the Premium Charge together!

For the record I now pay zero PC!

Cheers

Reality Check for Budding Traders

Hi there,

Many thanks for the kind comments I have received over the last week or so regarding my decision to trade on a more full-time level. While it seems that many of you want to go down the same path I suggest you read this post from a blog i found about 6 months ago and re-read yesterday directed from another blog.

http://thebetfairtrader.blogspot.com/2007/02/going-full-time-on-betfair.html

I had to consider all the factors he has mentioned before making this decision. I'm luckily enough to have the mortgage paid for and I'm used to working on my own. To vary my day I will also plan to expand my betting club so there will be different challenges apart from trading, otherwise my passion might go stale!

I have a 2yr old daughter which I will be able to spend more time with before she goes to school and I also love being active so I will be planning some big events soon. I did the 70.3 mile UK Ironman this year and I'm foolishly eyeing the full Ironman next year (2.4 miles swimming, 112 miles cycling and 26 miles running) so that will help (maybe) . Healthy body, healthy mind and all that!

What I really want to say is plan your trading career carefully before making the plunge.

U.S Horse Trading is Back

Hi Traders,

I just want to point out that the liquidity in U.S Horse Racing is back and is definitely tradeable again. Now that the Summer Flat Season is all but over, the U.S Markets are picking up again and Betfair have started to show slighlty delayed videos which will help gain interest. Last night and Monday night (which might be the busier nights) races were getting matched over £100K (normally around £20K-£40K last few months) and I averaged about £4 profit a race banking over £60 on both nights within 2-3 hours (£20-£25 p/h) . It is not great sums of money but it's extra trading opportunities that I will gladly take if I have the time.

In the next few days I will start a discussion on how to beat the Betfair Premium Charge (PC). As you would do with any business you want to keep as much money away from the tax man as possible so rather than complain about the PC it's time to think of what we can do to avoid it.

As I approach next year and the way the Betfair Premium Charge is calculated (tax me on past profits) I think I will need to spend at least one or two mornings a week to limit these charges as much as profitable. I'm not going to come up with a miracle solution but it is something every profitable trader really needs to look int unless your happy paying up to 20% tax?

I'll try and collate as much information as possible before I post

Enjoy & Happy Trading



 

Trading In the Zone - Free Book

Hi Folks,

Now I have handed in my notice I am already slacking off work and it will be a struggle to get through the run up to Xmas. Unfortunately my contract of employment does state I need to give 3 months notice due to the position I hold in the company. On the positive side I will still get my Xmas Bonus and have the opportunity to attend my last Works Xmas Party ever (fingers crossed)! If I'm still in the trading business the folowing Xmas maybe we should get a traders xmas part organised!

Anyway back to trading......... a few months ago I read a book called Trading In the Zone by Mark Douglas. It's a book about getting the right mental attitude to financial trading but you can apply what he writes to sports trading. There is a lot of fluff but it is definitely worth a read and it did help me improve my trading.

I have mentioned it on this blog before but I've now managed to download a pdf of the book which I can e-mail it to anyone for free who may be interested in this book.

Just drop your e-mail address in the comments or e-mail me at pbc.team@yahoo.co.uk (which is an e-mail I've jsut sent up for this purpose) and I will send it over. It retails at £24 at Amazon